Election Forecast - Borat win 74.7% of the time
Popular - Borat 51.0% Mitch 47.9%
Electoral - Borat 305.6 Mitch 232.4
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Couple new shows on tonight. Mob Doctor which has to have the dumbest name for a TV show ever - I wonder what it's about. Frankly I thought it had been canceled already.
And One I'm looking forward to is Revolution 9:00 tonight is the Premier.
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The floor is in and we're back to normal. The one problem we have is that Milo seems to prefer the darkest part of the rug for sleeping and we have stepped and kicked him 5+ times. We're going to have to go to Manards to get some traffic cones and put them around him when he passes out on the rug.
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I've been looking for things to take photos of and our neighbor was out harvesting his hops yesterday which look like pine cones. So I grabbed my camera and shot some hops. And of course I start getting all carried away on trying to make something look artsy.
Nope - not happening yet. But I bet any brewer would like this. A targeted audience.
Weird - Blogger puts an extra white frame around the black faux frame.
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I was on facebook last night trying to talk a friend of mine down as he was overly excited about his Eagles being 2-0. I explained that while they were 2-0 they had underperformed when it came to the point spread. It sort of reminded me of the Packers the year before they hired Brent Farve. Remember The MAGIC MAN? How he pulled all of those victories out of his butt and the next year the Pack totally blew?
While winning close games is good, in the long run it's all smoke and mirrors.
He was not buying it.
So this morning as I was chugging my coffee I picked up my Marc Lawrance football mag and did a quick scan of the last 4 years for all NFL teams. How many teams with winning records had losing records Against The Spread (ATS).
What I found was only 22% of winning teams had losing records ATS. What was more surprising was that of those 22% only 16% had Straight Up (SU) winning records the NEXT year.
So the chances of having back to back winning seasons after have a losing ATS record in year one is 4.5% .
The Eagles are 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS. The thing is that point spreads are a very very good indication of how a team is doing. Linemakers are pretty smart when it comes to point spreads and you would be surprised at how many times they are freakishly close. There is a little fudging but normally the opening lines are REALLY close to reality.
With that said - I won again betting against Wisconsin. This is too easy. The Badgers are 16 point favs this coming weekend. Bet against them covering 16. OH - root for them to win, just not by 16. Not sure about the NFL yet. Remember - I have Bridgejumper Year 21 soon. The "A" picks ATS win at an astounding 78% and were 4-0 last year and I bet the farm on them. 60-16 is their record. The "B" picks had a tough year and "C" were basically .500. Still I came out ahead 13.6 units for the year betting 1 on "C", 4 units on "B" and 10 units on "A".
Point spreads are almost like the stock market. Don't look now but the American economy is chugging away very very well. The American Stock Market is a good forecaster to what the economy will be in about 6 months. NOT JOBS, but how good are companies at making money.
People get confused and think "economy" is all about jobs. Jobs are a separate category. First companies need to make money and THEN they create jobs. These past 3 years of Obama's economy** has been about getting business to start making money again so they CAN start to hire.
ANYWAY - I'm getting political - STEP AWAY.
Rich people. STOP vilifying rich people!! State employees have become a villain to the Walker (moron him later) administration and we/they hate it. Well, Rich people seem to have become villains to Democrats and it's seriously not fair. Just because someone has worked hard and made money is no reason to hate him. I have three if not more friends/acquaintances that I believe are millionaires and they all vote "left" and are normal people. In fact most "rich" people are extremely normal. Not some villain.
So yea - you can hate that the "right" want to give them tax breaks but don't get mad at THEM just because they have money. The Koch Brothers are giving people with money a bad rep.
** The1st year does not count. Nothing a President can do will change anything in year one. Year one is all about the previous administration.
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OH - gotta say something - Walker? Seriously? He wants to deregulate the rules that say a house MUST have arc-fault circuit-interrupter (AFCI) protection, ground-fault circuit-interrupter (GFCI) protection, and tamper-resistant receptacles in new construction and most remodeling.
I'd like to hear what my brother thinks about this. Proven life- and property-saving requirements will be removed. Remember - less regulations is the GOP goal. Perhaps there is some reason I'm missing.here.
The Wisconsin Homebuilders Association who gave a lot to the Walker election is behind this.
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Nuff for today!
Have a great Monday!
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